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Jonas Johansson

Jonas Johansson

Universitetslektor

Jonas Johansson

Topological performance measures as surrogates for physical flow models for risk and vulnerability analysis for electric power systems.

Författare

  • Sarah LaRocca
  • Jonas Johansson
  • Henrik Hassel
  • Seth Guikema

Summary, in English

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist that can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. In this article, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical-flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this article is to compare performance estimates achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combinations of models to use when analyzing large-scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.

Avdelning/ar

  • Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM)
  • Industriell elektroteknik och automation
  • Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet

Publiceringsår

2015

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

608-623

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Risk Analysis: an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

Volym

35

Issue

4

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Ämne

  • Other Civil Engineering
  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
  • Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

Aktiv

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1539-6924